LESSON TWO:
How Bad Can It Get?

Introduction
It's now been a few weeks since the announcement that the world was running short of oil. Fuel prices continue to rise in anticipation of when actual supplies start to run short. It's becoming clear that there is no quick fix to the shortage, but many citizens are starting to hoard fuel anyway. Tensions are starting to rise.

In this and succeeding lessons, you present developments in the oil crisis as though they were really happening, and ask the students to deal realistically with these developments in their own lives. As they try to anticipate what will happen next in the crisis, they will naturally explore the relationships between lifestyle and resources. As their inquiry brings up topics and issues, you can use the resources we provide to enhance students' understanding. 

Lesson Objectives
Students will:

• Continue to immerse themselves in the realistic World Without Oil (WWO) scenario.
• Consider the problems that we might face during a prolonged oil shortage.
• Outline solutions that may help avert these negative consequences - from personal decisions to community decisions to national decisions.
• Compare the events of the oil crises of 1973 and 1979 to the anticipated events of the current (fictional) shortage.
• Continue to develop strategies predicated upon anticipated events.
• Continue to reflect on the life changes that would occur in a prolonged oil shortage.

Before the Lesson

• Read the Week 4 news report at WWO: http://www.worldwithoutoil.org/weekly.aspx?week=4
• Review the two Wikipedia articles on past oil crises (links below).
• Preview the resource materials (links below).
• Prepare your own "in-game" reaction to the events unfolding in World Without Oil. How will these new developments impact you personally? What changes are you seeing in the world around you due to the crisis? What actions are you taking in response? If you can, blog it and have your students follow your blog.

Part 1: Set the Stage
Student Page for this lesson is here:
http://worldwithoutoil.org/metalesson2s.htm
This page summarizes ideas and instructions for students.

• Re-immerse the students: briefly remind them of what's happened previously in a World Without Oil.
  
• Begin the day by showing Kal's "Organized Violence" video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmNXyipSEfs
  Also read Anda's webcomic about college students: http://anda-sf.livejournal.com/1271.html

Part 2: Take Action

• As a class, discuss what might have pushed people to react with violence. Why are people angry?
  
• If the crisis continues for months or years, who is going to be impacted the most? (Who will end up with less oil?) Why?

Part 3: Lesson Activity

1. Have the students re-form into the small groups established in Lesson One. Assign each group one of the following WWO citizen reports to read. Then have each group discuss the following: do the students feel that events such as these (Kalwithoutoil, Anda, and the third) could occur in their community? Why or why not? How much do they feel the oil crisis is impacting their neighborhood, community and city, and why? Have each group deliver a short report about the citizen report and their own reactions to it.
   
• It's spilling over... and it's not oil  http://fosedeitch.livejournal.com/1894.html
  
• May 3rd  http://clearest.livejournal.com/1358.html
  
• Stealing air conditioning?  http://eigenseide.livejournal.com/1562.html
  
• Break in  http://cycleboy-wwo.livejournal.com/949.html
  
• Unbelievable  http://youporkchop.livejournal.com/2043.html
  
• Gas station set ablaze  http://fallingintosin.livejournal.com/3311.html
  
2. What about government action? Ask students about the 1973 and 1979 oil crises in the U.S., and share with them as necessary the immediate actions (gas rationing, national speed limit) and the longer term outcomes (more fuel efficient cars, etc.) that the United States government implemented. Would those actions work today? Would they help prevent the events described in the WWO citizen reports?
   
3. If time permits, have students read the following citizen analysis, and react to it.
   
• Threat Scenario 1: Decline  http://aeldric.spaces.live.com/blog/
  cns!A859FF3D2F2384E4!115.entry
  
• Threat Scenario 2: Mad Max  http://aeldric.spaces.live.com/blog/
  cns!A859FF3D2F2384E4!117.entry
  

Part 4: Reflect
Now that the students know that the situation is serious and that people are already showing the ugly side of human nature, they should start thinking about the events that might erupt around them.  Use the following questions to help guide their reflection:

• How are people in your region reacting?
  
• How are you involved?
  
• Based upon these events, how are you feeling about the future?

Part 5: Take It Further
Distribute this to your students:

Some of life's best lessons are learned by listening to the words of those who have experienced events that have shaped our world.  To take it further today, find a parent, grandparent, or family friend that remembers the 1973 and/or 1979 oil crises.  What exactly do they remember?  How did they have to change their lives? Are they surprised that the United States continues to be so dependent on oil?  Do they think the lessons of the 1970s have been lost, and if so, why?  Share the responses through your blog, a video interview, or a podcast.

Additional Resources

• 1973 Oil Crisis at Wikipedia  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
  
• 1979 Oil Crisis at Wikipedia  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_crisis
  
• 2000 British Oil Blockade ("The Petrol War")  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/924574.stm